“All science is either physics or stamp collecting.”
— Ernest Rutherford 1871–1937 New Zealand physicist: J. B. Birks Rutherford at Manchester (1962)

Could the Economy Tank in 2016? 23 economic forecasts for the new year. Politico magazine: January 3, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo

“Everyone knows that the social sciences are hypercomplex. They are inherently far more difficult than physics and chemistry, and as a result they, not physics and chemistry, should be called the hard sciences. They just seem easier because we can talk with other human beings but not with photons, gluons, and sulphide radicals.”
— — Wilson, E. O. (1999: 99) Consilience. Random House, New York.

The IS-LM (Investment Saving – Liquidity Preference Money Supply) macroeconomic model: The IS curve moves to the right, causing higher interest rates (i) and expansion in the "real" economy (real GDP, or Y).

The investment/saving (IS) curve is a variation of the income-expenditure model incorporating market interest rates (demand), while the liquidity preference/money supply equilibrium (LM) curve represents the amount of money available for investing (supply).

Image and caption: Macroeconomics-Wikipedia

CLASS ACTIVITY i:
FIVE KNOWLEDGE QUESTIONS IN ROTATION

Print out the Knowledge Questions in advance on letter-sized paper as in the first  activity. Printable pdf. of AOK and Knowledge Questions.

Arrange students in five groups. Before they begin, give them a heads up that they should keep in mind, for specific questions, what they learned in What do little kids know? and Cognitive bias. 

Once the groups are settled (having cleared the floor space, there may be creative opportunities for seating) hand out a printed Knowledge Question for each group.

Every four minutes rotate the Knowledge Questions sequentially, until each group has encountered all five. Be strict about the time. Use a bell or novelty sound effect and, to avoid the frustration of cutting of conversation abruptly, provide a one minute warning. 

  • Economists and social scientists are sometimes told they have "physics envy." Explain the negative implications of this accusation and provide a robust counter to it.

  • To what extent do natural scientists and human scientists interpret the word "science" differently.

  • In the various social sciences what specific precautions must be undertaken to ensure the validity of quantitative surveys and qualitative narrative-based questionnaires?

  • In theoretical systems like the IS-LM macroeconomic model (above) the assumption has been that human players are always rational and will act to maximize their self interest. To what extent do Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's findings on heuristics and irrationality undermine this?

  • We can make the claim that each and every individual in the human arena has free will and a unique life story to tell (as well as inaccessible and mysterious facets of the subconscious that come into play). How then is it possible that theoretical predictions from models in the social sciences reliably conform to the actual data, often year after year?

CLASS ACTIVITY II: WRITTEN ASSIGNMENT

Students have a full week to craft a formal written response to one of the five questions. Specific academic disciplines should be mentioned where relevant, and real-life examples used to enrich argument and counterargument. Maximum word count: 800.

“... a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science.”
— Thomas Carlyle's 1849 description of Economics from Occasional Discourse on the Negro Question in Fraser's Magazine for Town and Country, Vol. XL., p. 672.